Asylum figures a mixed bag for UK government

Newly released Home Office data paints a mixed picture of how the government’s asylum seeker strategy is working out.

The number of asylum seekers housed in hotels – a current political flashpoint – has risen slightly compared to when it came to power. However the figures are far below the 2023 peak, when the Conservatives were in government, the new data shows.

The number of asylum applications in the UK during the year to June also reached a new record of 111,000 – though the government has reduced the backlog of claims by processing them faster.

In addition, in the year to June, about 38% more small boats landed on UK shores than the previous year.

BBC correspondents Jack Fenwick and Dominic Casciani assess what the figures tell us about the effectiveness of the government’s asylum strategy.

By political correspondent Jack Fenwick

Headlines about record numbers of asylum applications and an increase in hotel use since Labour came to power clearly don’t make comfortable reading for ministers.

But the overall view in the Home Office on Thursday morning, according to one source, was “not disappointed”.

And there is evidence that elements of the government’s strategy could be working, despite those headlines.

This is the first data that takes into account the huge rise in small boat crossings since March.

A few months ago, some people inside the Home Office had been worried that hotel use could spike as a result.

But that hasn’t happened. The number of asylum seekers in hotels actually went slightly down between March and June.

Ministers have been trying to find alternative sources of accommodation, like regular houses and flats – but those numbers haven’t gone up either.

By processing claims more quickly, the Home Office has been able to ensure that the big rise in small boat crossings hasn’t had much of an effect on asylum accommodation.

Ending the use of hotels was a Labour manifesto pledge and ministers have a long, long way to go before they get close to achieving it.

Opposition parties say the government’s record on illegal immigration will ultimately be judged on the small boat crossing numbers, which remain at stubborn, record-breaking highs.

Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp claims the numbers would be at zero if his party’s plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda had been implemented.

Labour scrapped the idea and a senior Home Office source says they’ve been able to speed up initial asylum applications by moving many of those staff over to that team.

The same source also tried to shift some of the political onus going forward onto the Ministry of Justice (MoJ).

While initial asylum claims are being processed more quickly, there’s increasing concern over what’s happening in the appeals courts.

The Home Office source said “courts are definitely a pinch point and we do need the MoJ to step up and help us with that”.

A former justice secretary told us these types of appeals backlogs are often caused by “poor casework management” from the Home Office during the initial application phase.

There’s clear potential for tension between two parts of government in the coming months.

By home and legal correspondent Dominic Casciani

The government’s ultimate aim is to convince the public that it has better control of the immigration and asylum system than its predecessors and anyone potentially waiting in the wings such as Reform.

This makes these stats complicated for both them and their opponents.

The good news for the government is that officials are processing more cases than a year ago, meaning that over the long term there may be fewer people in the system needing housing support.

The smaller the backlog, the less the government needs to spend. The total asylum support bill has fallen to £4.8bn in 2024-25, down from £5.4bn the year before.

But now for the bad news.

More people who have been told they have no case are appealing. Those people are then stuck in the system until they either win or lose their appeal.

And that’s part of the reason why the Home Office is making only modest progress on the use of hotels – a move brought in by the last government after it ran out of alternative accommodation around the UK.

The government can show it has increased removals from the UK of people at the end of the process. However more than half of removals are not failed asylum applicants but foreign national offenders leaving prison.

Removals of small boat migrants are modest and many of these are legally low-hanging fruit, such as the brief phenomenon of a rush of Albanian nationals.

Crucially though the number of people voluntarily leaving has gone up by 13% to 26,761. They are paid up to £3,000 to go – but that’s far cheaper than battling through the courts. This is a win for government.

Four other critical factors will play a huge role in this challenge.

The government’s plan to strengthen counter-smuggling gang powers is still in Parliament. TBC on whether that works.

Ministers are waiting for the French to stop dinghies leaving the shore and a separate German commitment to change its law so it can seize boats being warehoused there.

The final factor relies on global events. People will keep leaving their homes around the world to come to Europe if they feel unsafe.

All of these things need to keep going in the right direction for the government to meet its commitment to end hotel use by the end of the Parliament.